DATA & MARKET RESEARCH

We turn assumptions
into evidence —
and say where it stops.

Independent research on markets and business decisions. Rules written before the data is opened, a slice of history sealed until the end, and failures kept on the record.

pre-registered held-out samples neutral baselines human × AI
WHAT WE DO

Four things, done properly.

01 · RESEARCH

Market & strategy testing

Does the rule actually work? We define pass criteria in advance, test against a neutral baseline, and report the limits alongside the result.

02 · DECISIONS

Business decision analysis

Which promotion truly lifted sales. Which signals precede a customer leaving. Whether a long-standing rule still holds in recent data.

03 · DASHBOARDS

Live data dashboards

Working instruments, not screenshots: live feeds, automated checks, and interfaces built so a non-technical reader can act on them.

04 · AUTOMATION

Research automation with AI

Pipelines where AI does the labour and a human keeps the judgement — with the guardrails that stop speed from producing nonsense.

HOW WE WORK

Three rules that make a result
worth reading.

1

Pre-registered

Definitions, pass criteria and measurement are written down before the data is opened. If the bar moves after seeing results, the test proves nothing.

2

Held-out sample

A slice of history is sealed during development and opened once, at the end. It is the only honest way to know whether a finding survives outside the room it was born in.

3

Failures stay on the record

Rejected ideas are kept with the reason they failed. A map of dead ends is an asset — it stops the same money being spent twice.

Speed is not the achievement. With modern tooling, testing is cheap — which means coincidences that look like discoveries are cheap too. The guardrails are the product.

SELECTED WORK

What it looks like in practice.

RESEARCH NOTE

Options walls & price magnets

Testing whether a defended price level carries information — measured against the identical setup without the condition, on a multi-decade sample.

SYSTEM

A working memory that compounds

Every decision, result and mistake becomes a permanent node; related nodes link automatically, so past work resurfaces when a new question touches it.

PRODUCT

Live decision dashboards

Market state, positions and risk in one screen — written in plain language so the person deciding does not need to read code to trust it.

Client data and proprietary signal logic are never published. Structure and method are shown; contents stay private.

HUMAN × AI
AI does the labour. A human asks the question, makes the call, and carries the responsibility.

Most setups invert this — asking a model for judgement while a person does the grunt work. Run the right way round, the gain is not just speed: it is being able to test the boring, unglamorous questions that nobody had hours for before.

CONTACT

Start with one question.

Send the question you want settled. If it cannot be answered honestly with the data available, we will say so before any work starts.